Mild but less humid Sunday behind us
Yesterday's frontal passage ushered in an area of high pressure and cooler northwest winds. It was a noticeable difference throughout the daytime on Sunday compared to Saturday's conditions. Dew points were slightly lower and high temperatures were 5-8° below Saturday. After another seasonably mild day Monday, we'll warm up again and ramp up our thunderstorm chances.
Rain for some Monday, active jet stream arrives
Monday will be another seasonably mild day with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. The current moisture to our south and west moves in our direction overnight and will be around for a majority of Monday. However, peak coverage will be 50-60% of Central Indiana.
With somewhat dry air in place Monday, many spots will not see rain. Areas along and south of I-70 are most favored to see rain in the morning and afternoon. It won't amount to much and will remain below severe limits. Could have a few rumbles of thunder but that's about it. See the graphics below.
This week, the jet stream will be responsible for making multiple waves of rain move across the country. All of the energy originating in the Pacific Ocean will ride along that jet stream. That energy will create storms with the jet stream setting up in the Midwest for our storm chances.
Tuesday: AM Rain to PM severe storms?
Tuesday will be an active day but the exact severe threat and timing is not entirely set in stone. If we get morning activity, the lesser of a severe threat. If the morning activity holds off until later in the day, the severe potential goes up. I'm thinking two potential rounds (1) in the mid-to-late morning then (2) in the evening potentially. We would watch for that "break" or "lull" midday for (1) how warm our temperatures get, (2) how high our humidity levels get and (3) the amount of sunshine we see. Forecast highs Tuesday look to be around 80°.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central Indiana under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. It would be for that second round of storms should they form and become severe. Main threats would be gusty winds and hail and would occur Tuesday early evening. This is NOT set in stone as we'll see if our atmosphere can recover from the morning activity.
More severe potential Wednesday
The last couple of days have been consistent in showing showers and severe storms for Wednesday across portions of the country. This continues to include much of Indiana and the Ohio Valley. It will be a similar story to Tuesday with the active jet stream moving multiple waves of storms across the country.
We'll warm up and turn a touch more humid with highs in the lower 80s. The severe threat will depend on if our atmosphere can recover, the amount of sun we see and how much moisture is present. Storms look more likely in the afternoon and evening. Depending on the factors I listed above, the severe threat could move further south. Wednesday will have dry times, much like Tuesday.
Jet stream pushes east, ushers in cooler/drier air
Starting on Thursday, scattered showers will remain in the forecast. However with the jet stream pushing east, we'll see breezy northwest winds returning along with gradually dropping temperatures. Highs only in the 60s return Friday and into next weekend for Mother's Day. This will set the stage for several days of below normal temperatures.
